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Shoreline Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook Lake Erie (Event Message #1)

December 5, 2021

Effective immediately, the Long Point Region Conservation Authority (LPRCA) is issuing a Shoreline Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook for the entire Lake Erie shoreline within its jurisdiction. This includes Bayham, Norfolk County and Western Haldimand County.

Flood Status Indicator: Flood Outlook Statement

A low pressure system is forecast to move into the Province Sunday evening bringing strong winds and widespread precipitation. Strong southwest/west winds 50 km/h with gusts potentially exceeding 80 km/h are forecast overnight, Monday and possibly Tuesday. With the forecasted winds, minor flooding is expected to impact very low lying areas along the Lake Erie shoreline. Wave uprush and increased shoreline erosion can be expected from this event. Southwestern Ontario is expected to receive 15 to 30 mm of rain between Sunday evening and Monday from this event.

The Ministry of Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources and Forestry (NDMNRF) is currently forecasting Lake Erie to rise in Long Point by 0.64 meters above the current level to an elevation of 175.16 meters (IGLD 1985), and 1.23 meters to 175.66 meters (IGLD 1985) along the Haldimand County shoreline within LPRCA’s watershed. Peak levels are currently expected to occur Monday evening. Wave heights are expected to reach 2 meters along the shoreline.

Community flood coordinators are asked to monitor road conditions along the lakeshore.

People are urged to use caution or stay away from Lake Erie shoreline areas experiencing strong wave action and elevated water levels. Parents are reminded to keep children and pets away from these areas.

LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.

This Shoreline Conditions Statement is in effect until 8:30 a.m. Tuesday, December 7, 2021.

Contact LPRCA at or 519-842-4242 should further information be required.