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Flood Watch – Lake Erie Storm Surge (Event Message #1)

November 14, 2020

Effective immediately, Long Point Region Conservation Authority (LPRCA) is issuing a Flood Watch – Lake Erie Storm Surge for the entire shoreline within its jurisdiction.

Environment Canada has issued a strong wind warning, and is forecasting 75 km/h south winds Sunday morning, veering southwest 85 km/h by Sunday afternoon and turning west 85 km/h by Sunday evening. During this event gusts up to 115 km/h are forecasted. With these forecasted winds, flooding is expected to impact low lying areas along the Lake Erie shoreline. Wave uprush and increased shoreline erosion can be expected from this event.

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) is currently forecasting Lake Erie to rise in the western Long Point area by 0.8 meters above the current level to an elevation of 175.5 meters (IGLD 1985), and in the Port Colborne area by 1.7 meters above the current level to an elevation of 176.4 meters (IGLD 1985). Levels are expected to remain elevated into Monday. Wave heights are forecast to reach up to 3.0 meters in the Long Point area and 1.7 m along Haldimand County’s shoreline.

Community flood coordinators are asked to monitor conditions along the lakeshore.

People are urged to use caution or stay away from Lake Erie shoreline areas experiencing strong wave action and elevated water levels. Parents are reminded to keep children and pets away from these areas.

This Flood Watch for the Lake Erie shoreline is in effect until 9:00 A.M. on Monday, November 16th, 2020. LPRCA staff will continue to monitor forecasts and will update this message as necessary.