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Shoreline Conditions Statement – Lake Erie (High) Static Water Level Outlook

August 5, 2020

Long Point Region Conservation Authority is updating the Shoreline Conditions Statement for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline. This message is intended to bring attention to the current high static (calm) water levels of Lake Erie and the potential for flooding and erosion as we move into the end of summer.

The National Hydrological Services Great Lakes Water Levels Information Memorandum from August 4, 2020 reports that:

  • Lake Erie’s level was 71 cm above its July average and 8 cm below the previous record high of 2019.
  • Lake Erie fell 7 cm last month, more than its average fall of 5 cm.
  • At the beginning of August, Lake Erie was 70 cm above average, and 9 cm below last year at this time.

Update issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources and Forestry on August 10, 2022:

  • Lake Erie declined 8 cm last month while the long-term average sees a decline of 5 cm in July.
  • Lake Erie’s beginning-of-August level was 24 cm above the period-of-record (1918-2020) average.

Water supplies were greater than normal in the upper great lakes while local supplies to Lake Erie were drier than normal for the month of July. Assuming average water supply conditions, Lake Erie static levels are expected to remain well above average but continue to decrease over the next 3 months. Figure 1 in the PDF attachment shows the 6-month forecast for Lake Erie.

Due to the high level of Lake Erie, there continues to be a heightened risk of flooding from lake surges and wave uprush, and wave-driven erosion along the shoreline.

Community flood coordinators and the public are advised to monitor weather conditions, particularly strong southwest winds. People are urged to use caution or stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline during times of strong wave action and elevated water levels.

LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.

This Shoreline Conditions Statement is in effect until further notice.

Contact LPRCA at or 519-842-4242 should further information be required.