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Flood Watch (Event Message #1)

February 22, 2019

Effective immediately, the Long Point Region Conservation Authority is issuing a Flood Watch for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Environment Canada is expecting strong southwest winds with gusts of 90 to 100 km/hr to develop in the wake of a cold front sweeping through Southern Ontario Sunday morning and afternoon. Gusts near 120 km/h are possible especially in areas near the Lake Erie shoreline. Winds are expected to continue through Sunday night and weaken into Monday.

Currently, the surge forecast is uncertain. There is disagreement between the Ministry of Natural Resources & Forestry (MNRF) and the National Oceanic & Atmospheric (NOAA) surge models for predicting levels on Lake Erie. MNRF is not predicting a rise in lake levels whereas NOAA is predicting a 2.3 meter rise above chart datum (173.5 m) rise at Port Colborne. The uncertainty in prediction of levels is due to the uncertainty and variability of existing ice cover on Lake Erie.

Lake levels are expected to begin to rise Sunday morning and peak in the afternoon. If this surge level is reached, flooding can be expected in low lying areas along the Lake Erie shoreline
Community flood coordinators are advised to monitor the conditions and stand by for further information.

People are urged to use caution or stay away from Lake Erie shoreline areas experiencing strong wave action and elevated water levels.

LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.

This Flood Watch is in effect until noon, Monday, February 25, 2019.

Contact Ben Hodi at 519-842-4242 ext. 264 should further information be required.