Category: Flood Status
Shoreline Conditions Statement – Lake Erie (High) Static Water Level Outlook
August 5, 2020Long Point Region Conservation Authority is updating the Shoreline Conditions Statement for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline. This message is intended to bring attention to the current high static (calm) water levels of Lake Erie and the potential for flooding and erosion as we move into the end of summer.
The National Hydrological Services Great Lakes Water Levels Information Memorandum from August 4, 2020 reports that:
- Lake Erie’s level was 71 cm above its July average and 8 cm below the previous record high of 2019.
- Lake Erie fell 7 cm last month, more than its average fall of 5 cm.
- At the beginning of August, Lake Erie was 70 cm above average, and 9 cm below last year at this time.
Update issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources and Forestry on August 10, 2022:
- Lake Erie declined 8 cm last month while the long-term average sees a decline of 5 cm in July.
- Lake Erie’s beginning-of-August level was 24 cm above the period-of-record (1918-2020) average.
Water supplies were greater than normal in the upper great lakes while local supplies to Lake Erie were drier than normal for the month of July. Assuming average water supply conditions, Lake Erie static levels are expected to remain well above average but continue to decrease over the next 3 months. Figure 1 in the PDF attachment shows the 6-month forecast for Lake Erie.
Due to the high level of Lake Erie, there continues to be a heightened risk of flooding from lake surges and wave uprush, and wave-driven erosion along the shoreline.
Community flood coordinators and the public are advised to monitor weather conditions, particularly strong southwest winds. People are urged to use caution or stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline during times of strong wave action and elevated water levels.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Shoreline Conditions Statement is in effect until further notice.
Contact LPRCA at lprca.floodmessage@lprca.on.ca or 519-842-4242 should further information be required.
Flood Outlook Statement Update
July 5, 2020Shoreline Conditions Statement – Lake Erie (High) Static Water Level Outlook
April 27, 2020Long Point Region Conservation Authority is updating the Shoreline Conditions Statement for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline. This message is intended to bring attention to the current high static (calm) water levels of Lake Erie and the potential for flooding and erosion as we move into the spring.
The National Hydrological Services Great Lakes Water Levels Information Memorandum from April 3, 2020 reports that:
- Lake Erie’s level was 86 cm above average, the highest March mean level on record and 10 cm above the previous record high of 1987.
- Lake Erie rose 22 cm in March, on average it rises by 16 cm in March.
- At the beginning of April, Lake Erie’s level was the highest on record. It was 90 cm above average, 33 cm higher than last year, and 12 cm above the previous record-high beginning-of-April level set in 1985.
Water supplies over the last three months were generally above average throughout the Great Lakes and Lake Erie’s static water level continues to set records with a daily average level of approximately 175.0 m. Assuming average water supply conditions, Lake Erie static levels are expected to remain well above average and increase into May. Figure 1 below shows the 6-month forecast for Lake Erie.
Due to the high level of Lake Erie, there continues to be a heightened risk of flooding from lake surges and wave uprush, and wave-driven erosion along the shoreline.
Community flood coordinators and the public are advised to monitor weather conditions, particularly strong southwest winds. People are urged to use caution or stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline during times of strong wave action and elevated water levels.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Shoreline Conditions Statement is in effect until further notice.
Contact LPRCA at lprca.floodmessage@lprca.on.ca or 519-842-4242 should further information be required.
Flood Watch – Lake Erie Storm Surge
April 20, 2020The Lake Erie shoreline Flood Watch – Lake Erie Storm Surge is now extended until Monday, April 27th 2020.
Weather forecasts are currently predicting moderate winds between 25-40 km/h this week into Sunday. Lake Erie recently set a new monthly average level for March and continues to be well above average for April. With these exceptionally high levels, even moderate winds can cause low lying areas along the shoreline to be flooded.
Standing water, erosion, property damage and other impacts may continue to affect areas along the shoreline. At this time, LPRCA reminds everyone to stay away from areas affected by recent shoreline flooding due to possible erosion, instability and other damage. Parents are especially reminded to keep children away from these areas.
Community flood coordinators are advised to monitor the forecast and standby for further information.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor forecast conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Flood Watch is in effect until 9:00 AM, Monday, April 27th.
Contact Matt Churly at 519-427-4242 should further information be required.
Flood Watch – Lake Erie Storm Surge
April 14, 2020The Flood Warning issued on Sunday, April 12th, 2020 for the Lake Erie shoreline is now terminated and a Flood Watch – Lake Erie Storm Surge is now in effect.
Weather forecasts are currently predicting moderate southwesterly and westerly winds between 20-40 km/h for the remainder of the week into Sunday. Lake Erie recently set a new monthly average level for March and continues to be well above average for April. With these exceptionally high levels, even moderate winds can cause low lying areas along the shoreline to be flooded.
Lake Erie flood water levels have decreased somewhat since last night. However, standing water, erosion, property damage and other impacts from yesterday continue to affect areas along the shoreline. At this time, LPRCA reminds everyone to stay away from areas affected by recent shoreline flooding due to possible erosion, instability and other damage. Parents are especially reminded to keep children away from these areas.
Community flood coordinators are advised to monitor the forecast and standby for further information.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor forecast conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Flood Watch is in effect until 9:00 AM, Monday, April 20th.
Contact Craig Jacques at 519-429-2738 should further information be required.
Lake Erie Shoreline Flood Warning (Event Message #1)
April 12, 2020Effective immediately, the Long Point Region Conservation Authority (LPRCA) is issuing a Flood Warning for the entire Lake Erie shoreline within its jurisdiction.
Environment Canada has issued a gale warning, forecasting strong southwesterly winds of 65-75 km/h and gusts up to 100 km/h over Lake Erie on Monday afternoon and evening. With the forecasted winds, flooding is expected to impact low lying areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and lower reaches of some tributaries. Wave uprush and increased shoreline erosion can be expected from this event.
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) is currently forecasting Lake Erie to rise in the western Long Point area by 0.43 meters above the current level to an elevation of 175.51 meters (IGLD 1985), and in the Port Colborne area by 0.98 meters above the current level to an elevation of 176.06 meters (IGLD 1985). Peak levels are currently expected to occur between late Monday afternoon through Monday evening. Wave heights are forecast to reach up to 2 meters along the shoreline.
Haldimand County residents and businesses within LPRCA’s watershed should be aware flooding could reach Lake Erie Flood Zone 3.
Community flood coordinators are asked to monitor road conditions along the lakeshore and warn those residents and businesses in low lying areas along the lakeshore.
People are urged to use caution or stay away from Lake Erie shoreline areas experiencing strong wave action and elevated water levels. Parents are reminded to keep children and pets away from these areas.
This Flood Warning for the Lake Erie shoreline is in effect until 2:00 P.M. on Tuesday, April 14th, 2020.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor conditions throughout the watershed and will update this message as necessary.
Contact Craig Jacques at 519-429-2738 should further information be required.
Lake Erie Flood Watch (Event Message #1)
April 8, 2020Effective immediately, Long Point Region Conservation Authority is issuing a Flood Watch for the Lake Erie shoreline.
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) is forecasting sustained strong southwest and west winds ranging from 40 to 50 km/hr, and gusts in excess of 60 km/h Thursday morning continuing into Friday.
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry is currently forecasting Lake Erie to rise in Long Point by 0.15 meters above the current level to an elevation of 175.28 meters (IGLD 1985), and in Port Colborne by 0.39 meters above the current level to an elevation of 175.50 meters (IGLD 1985). Strong winds are expected to cause wave heights to reach up to 1.3 meters in the Long Point area and up to 0.9 meters towards the eastern limits of the watershed. Forecast models are currently forecasting water levels to remain elevated from Thursday morning until Friday morning.
With the forecasted winds, flooding is expected to impact very low-lying areas of the Lake Erie shoreline and lower reaches of some tributaries.
Haldimand County residents and businesses within LPRCA’s watershed should be aware flooding could reach Lake Erie Flood Zone 1.
Community flood coordinators are advised to prepare and monitor forecasts and stand by for further information.
People are urged to use caution or stay away from Lake Erie shoreline areas experiencing strong wave action and elevated water levels. Parents are reminded to keep children and pets away from these areas.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor forecasted conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Flood Watch is in effect until noon, Friday April 10th.
Contact Craig Jacques, Water Resource Specialist at 519-429-2738 should further information be required.
Lake Erie Flood Watch (Event Message #1)
March 12, 2020Effective immediately, Long Point Region Conservation Authority is issuing a Flood Watch for the Lake Erie shoreline.
Environmental Canada is forecasting sustained strong southwesterly winds with gusts up to 75 km/h Friday morning and continuing into the afternoon. Winds are expected to ease early evening on Friday.
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) is currently forecasting Lake Erie to rise in Long Point by 0.3 meters above the current level to an elevation of 175.2 meters (IGLD 1985), and in Port Colborne by 0.68 meters above the current level to an elevation of 175.54 meters (IGLD 1985). Strong winds are expected to cause wave heights to reach up to 1.73 meters in the Long Point area and up to 1.65 meters towards the eastern limits of the watershed. Forecast models are currently forecasting water levels to remain elevated from Friday morning until Friday evening.
With the forecasted winds, flooding is expected to impact very low-lying areas of the Lake Erie shoreline and lower reaches of some tributaries.
Haldimand County residents and businesses within LPRCA’s watershed should be aware flooding could reach Lake Erie Flood Zone 1.
Community flood coordinators are advised to prepare and monitor forecasts and stand by for further information.
People are urged to use caution or stay away from Lake Erie shoreline areas experiencing strong wave action and elevated water levels. Parents are reminded to keep children and pets away from these areas.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor forecasted conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Flood Watch is in effect until 9:00 AM, Saturday, March 14th.
Contact Craig Jacques, Water Resource Specialist at 519-842-4242 ext. 265, or after hours at 519-429-2738 should further information be required.
Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook – Lake Erie
March 6, 2020The Long Point Region Conservation Authority is updating the Flood Outlook for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline. This message is intended to raise attention to the current high static water levels of Lake Erie and the potential for flooding as we move through the winter months.
The National Hydrological Services Great Lakes Water Levels Information Memorandum from March 5, 2020 reports that:
- Lake Erie’s level was 90 cm above average, the highest February mean level on record and 12 cm above the previous record high of 1987.
- Lake Erie remained stable last month, on average it rises by 3 cm in February.
- At the beginning of March, Lake Erie’s level was 86 cm above average, 25 cm higher than last year, the highest on record and 9 cm above the previous record-high beginning-of-March level set in 1986.
The current Lake Erie static water level (calm) is approximately 174.92 m. Water supplies over the last three months were generally above average throughout the Great Lakes, with the exception of Lake Erie which have been near average. Assuming average water supply conditions, Lake Erie water levels are expected to increase into May.
Due to the combination of above average static water levels, lack of ice cover and strong southwest winds typical of the winter/early spring months, there continues to be a heightened risk of flooding from lake surges and wave uprush, and wave-driven erosion along the shoreline.
Community flood coordinators and the public are advised to monitor weather conditions, particularly strong southwest winds. People are urged to use caution or stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline during times of strong wave action and elevated water levels.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Flood Outlook is in effect until further notice.
Contact LPRCA at 519-842-4242 should further information be required.
Lake Erie Flood Watch (Event Message #1)
February 26, 2020Effective immediately, the Long Point Region Conservation Authority is issuing a Flood Watch for the Lake Erie shoreline.
Weather forecasts are calling for sustained 45-55 km/h west winds gusting up to 80 km/h starting Thursday morning and continuing into the early hours of Friday morning.
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) is currently forecasting Lake Erie to rise in Long Point by 0.3 meters above the current level to an elevation of 175.2 meters (IGLD 1985), and in the Port Colborne area 0.65 meters above the current level to an elevation of 175.55 meters (IGLD 1985). Strong winds are expected to cause wave heights to reach up to 1.7 meters in the Long Point area and up to 1.5 meters towards the eastern limits of the watershed.
The lake surge models are currently showing water levels to remain elevated from Thursday morning until Thursday late evening.
With the forecasted winds, flooding is expected to impact very low-lying areas of the Lake Erie shoreline and lower reaches of some tributaries.
Community flood coordinators are advised to prepare and monitor forecasts and stand by for further information.
People are urged to use caution or stay away from Lake Erie shoreline areas experiencing strong wave action and elevated water levels. Parents are reminded to keep children and pets away from these areas.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor forecasted conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Flood Watch is in effect until 9:00 AM, Friday, February 28th.
Contact Matt Churly at 519-842-4242 ext. 226 should further information be required.