Category: Flood Status
Flood Outlook for Lake Erie Shoreline
March 7, 2019The Long Point Region Conservation Authority is updating the Flood Outlook for all areas of the Lake Erie shoreline within its jurisdiction. This updated message is intended to raise attention to the current and forecast high static water levels of Lake Erie. The potential for storm surge events continues to be increased as a result of the higher lake levels.
The National Hydrological Services Great Lakes Water Levels Information Memorandum (March 1st, 2019) reports that:
- Lake Erie’s monthly water level was 62 cm above average and 17 cm above last February, and the highest since 1998.
- Lake Erie rose 5 cm last month more than the typical rise of 2 cm.
As a result of the high lake levels, there continues to be an increased risk for flooding and erosion along the Lake Erie shoreline. The greatest risk for flooding and erosion in the Long Point Region in particular is from storms with sustained south-westerly and westerly wind storms. The risk for flood events along the shoreline is expected to remain high into the spring.
Community flood coordinators and the public are advised to monitor weather conditions and the increase in potential for flooding and erosion along the shoreline into 2019. People are urged to use caution or stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline during times of strong wave action and elevated water levels.
Long Point Region Conservation Authority staff will continue to monitor conditions and will update this flood message as necessary.
Contact Ben Hodi, Water Resources Analyst at 519-842-4242 ext. 264 should further information be required.
Flood Watch (Event Message #3)
February 24, 2019The Long Point Region Conservation Authority is updating the Flood Watch issued yesterday for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline.
Forecasts are continuing to expect very strong southwest winds with gusts of 100 to 110 km/hr to develop in the wake of an artic cold front sweeping through Southern Ontario today. Gusts near 120 km/h are possible especially in areas near the Lake Erie shoreline. Winds are expected to continue through Sunday night and weaken into Monday.
Updated surge models from both the Ministry of Natural Resources and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting Lake Erie to rise.
Based on current models the forecast below applies:
- Current Lake Erie level in Long Point: 174.6 m (excluding waves)
- Lake Erie estimated peak level in Long Point: 175.7 m (excluding waves)
- Estimated time of peak: Sunday afternoon and early evening
Lake levels are expected to begin to rise late Sunday morning and peak late early evening. Flooding can be expected in low lying areas along the Lake Erie shoreline.
Community flood coordinators are advised to monitor the lakeshore and implement measures as necessary.
People are urged to use caution or stay away from Lake Erie shoreline areas experiencing strong wave action and elevated water levels.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Flood Watch is in effect until noon, Monday, February 25, 2019.
Contact Ben Hodi at 519-842-4242 ext. 264 should further information be required.
Flood Watch (Event Message #2)
February 23, 2019The Long Point Region Conservation Authority is updating the Flood Watch issued yesterday for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline.
Environment Canada is continuing to expect strong southwest winds with gusts of 90 to 100 km/hr to develop in the wake of a cold front sweeping through Southern Ontario Sunday morning and afternoon. Gusts near 110 km/h are possible especially in areas near the Lake Erie shoreline. Winds are expected to continue through Sunday night and weaken into Monday.
Current surge models are predicting Lake Erie to rise to their highest level seen this year. Based on current models the forecast below applies:
- Current Lake Erie level in Long Point: 174.6 m (excluding waves)
- Lake Erie estimated peak level in Long Point: 175.6 m (excluding waves)
- Estimated time of peak: Sunday afternoon
Lake levels are expected to begin to rise late Sunday morning and peak late afternoon. Flooding can be expected in low lying areas along the Lake Erie shoreline.
Community flood coordinators are advised to monitor the lakeshore and implement measures as necessary.
People are urged to use caution or stay away from Lake Erie shoreline areas experiencing strong wave action and elevated water levels.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Flood Watch is in effect until noon, Monday, February 25, 2019.
Contact Ben Hodi at 519-842-4242 ext. 264 should further information be required.
Flood Watch (Event Message #1)
February 22, 2019Effective immediately, the Long Point Region Conservation Authority is issuing a Flood Watch for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline.
Environment Canada is expecting strong southwest winds with gusts of 90 to 100 km/hr to develop in the wake of a cold front sweeping through Southern Ontario Sunday morning and afternoon. Gusts near 120 km/h are possible especially in areas near the Lake Erie shoreline. Winds are expected to continue through Sunday night and weaken into Monday.
Currently, the surge forecast is uncertain. There is disagreement between the Ministry of Natural Resources & Forestry (MNRF) and the National Oceanic & Atmospheric (NOAA) surge models for predicting levels on Lake Erie. MNRF is not predicting a rise in lake levels whereas NOAA is predicting a 2.3 meter rise above chart datum (173.5 m) rise at Port Colborne. The uncertainty in prediction of levels is due to the uncertainty and variability of existing ice cover on Lake Erie.
Lake levels are expected to begin to rise Sunday morning and peak in the afternoon. If this surge level is reached, flooding can be expected in low lying areas along the Lake Erie shoreline
Community flood coordinators are advised to monitor the conditions and stand by for further information.
People are urged to use caution or stay away from Lake Erie shoreline areas experiencing strong wave action and elevated water levels.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Flood Watch is in effect until noon, Monday, February 25, 2019.
Contact Ben Hodi at 519-842-4242 ext. 264 should further information be required.
Flood Watch (Event Message #1)
February 7, 2019Effective immediately, the Long Point Region Conservation Authority is issuing a Flood Watch for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline.
Environment Canada is expecting strong southwest winds with gusts near 90 km/h to develop in the wake of a cold front sweeping through Southern Ontario overnight. Gusts near 100 km/h are quite possible especially in areas near the Lake Erie shore. It is expected that winds will begin to slowly diminish Friday afternoon.
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) is currently forecasting Port Colborne to rise 1 m above the current level to an elevation of 175.5 meters (IGLD) and Long Point to rise 0.7m above the current level to an elevation of 175.2 meters (IGLD). Lake levels are expected to begin to rise in the early hours of Friday and peak late Friday morning to early afternoon. If this surge level is reached, some flooding can be expected in low lying areas along the Lake Erie shoreline.
Community flood coordinators are advised to monitor the conditions and stand by for further information.
People are urged to use caution or stay away from Lake Erie shoreline areas experiencing strong wave action and elevated water levels.
LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.
This Flood Watch is in effect until 4PM, Friday, February 8, 2019.
Contact Craig Jacques at 519-842-4242 ext. 265 or 519-429-2738 should further information be required.
Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety (Event Message # 1)
January 23, 2019A warm front is passing through the area today, bringing with it strong winds, above seasonal temperatures and up to 30 mm of rain by the end of the day.
With the forecast rain and above freezing temperatures today, snowmelt will result in rising stream levels and possibly some nuisance flooding in low-lying areas. Due to the expected rise in water levels, the LPRCA is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety for all watercourses within its jurisdiction.
People are cautioned to stay away from ditches, watercourses, ponds and other water bodies as the combination of slippery banks, unstable ice and cold, fast-flowing water can be dangerous. Parents are reminded to keep children, pets and livestock away from all of these areas. Today’s freezing rain has made them even more hazardous than normal.
Strong south-westerly winds gusting up to 70 to 80 km/h are expected this afternoon, however limited impact along the lakeshore is expected due to the ice cover that has developed on Lake Erie. Colder air will return tonight, bringing the short-lived January thaw to an end.
With watercourse levels expected to remain elevated for several days, this message is in effect until noon, Friday, January 25, 2019. LPRCA staff will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will update this message as necessary.
Contact Craig Jacques, Water Resources Specialist at 519-842-4242 ext. 265 should further information be required.