Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook (Event Message #1)

The Long Point Region Conservation Authority is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook for the entire watershed.

A low-pressure system is forecast to move across southern Ontario beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday, bringing approximately 15–25 mm of precipitation to the watershed. Air temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above freezing during this period.

Snowpack remains present across the watershed and has begun to consolidate with recent milder temperatures. The combination of rainfall and snowmelt is expected to generate runoff and increase water levels and flows in local watercourses. Localized flooding and ponding of water in low-lying and poorly drained areas is possible.

River ice remains in place across much of the watershed. With rising flows and milder temperatures, ice cover may weaken and begin to break up. While no ice-related impacts are currently observed, ice movement and localized jamming remain possible, particularly in areas with a history of ice jams. The Big Otter Creek in Vienna, Port Burwell and the mouth of Sandusk Creek are high-risk areas should ice jams occur.

At this time, widespread flooding is not anticipated; however, water levels and flows are expected to increase through Wednesday into Thursday. Municipal staff and landowners in historically flood-prone or ice-jam-prone areas are encouraged to monitor conditions closely.

People are warned to stay away from ditches, water bodies, streams, rivers, and ponds, as the combination of slippery banks and cold, fast-flowing water is dangerous. Landowners are also advised to ensure that dams, culverts, and catch basins are free from debris and functioning properly, if the work can be done safely.

This Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook will remain in effect until 12:00 PM Friday, February 20, 2026. LPRCA staff will continue to monitor watershed and weather conditions and will update this message as necessary.

Contact Saifur Rahman, Manager, Engineering & Infrastructure, at lprca.floodmessage@lprca.on.ca or (519) 842-4242, Ext.265, should further information be required.

Note:

Flood Outlook Statement — Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snowmelt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, a rise in Lake Erie, lakeshore flooding or erosion.