Shoreline Conditions Statement – Lake Erie (High) Static Water Level Outlook

Long Point Region Conservation Authority is updating the Shoreline Conditions Statement for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline. This message is intended to bring attention to the current high static (calm) water levels of Lake Erie and the potential for flooding and erosion as we move into the spring.

The National Hydrological Services Great Lakes Water Levels Information Memorandum from April 3, 2020 reports that:

• Lake Erie’s level was 86 cm above average, the highest March mean level on record and 10 cm above the previous record high of 1987.
• Lake Erie rose 22 cm in March, on average it rises by 16 cm in March.
• At the beginning of April, Lake Erie’s level was the highest on record. It was 90 cm above average, 33 cm higher than last year, and 12 cm above the previous record-high beginning-of-April level set in 1985.

Water supplies over the last three months were generally above average throughout the Great Lakes and Lake Erie’s static water level continues to set records with a daily average level of approximately 175.0 m. Assuming average water supply conditions, Lake Erie static levels are expected to remain well above average and increase into May. Figure 1 below shows the 6-month forecast for Lake Erie.

Due to the high level of Lake Erie, there continues to be a heightened risk of flooding from lake surges and wave uprush, and wave-driven erosion along the shoreline.

Community flood coordinators and the public are advised to monitor weather conditions, particularly strong southwest winds. People are urged to use caution or stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline during times of strong wave action and elevated water levels.

LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.

This Shoreline Conditions Statement is in effect until further notice.

Contact LPRCA at lprca.floodmessage@lprca.on.ca or 519-842-4242 should further information be required.