Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook – Lake Erie

The Long Point Region Conservation Authority is updating the Flood Outlook for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline. This message is intended to raise attention to the current high static water levels of Lake Erie and the potential for flooding as we move through the winter months.

The National Hydrological Services Great Lakes Water Levels Information Memorandum from March 5, 2020 reports that:

• Lake Erie’s level was 90 cm above average, the highest February mean level on record and 12 cm above the previous record high of 1987.
• Lake Erie remained stable last month, on average it rises by 3 cm in February.
• At the beginning of March, Lake Erie’s level was 86 cm above average, 25 cm higher than last year, the highest on record and 9 cm above the previous record-high beginning-of-March level set in 1986.

The current Lake Erie static water level (calm) is approximately 174.92 m. Water supplies over the last three months were generally above average throughout the Great Lakes, with the exception of Lake Erie which have been near average. Assuming average water supply conditions, Lake Erie water levels are expected to increase into May.

Due to the combination of above average static water levels, lack of ice cover and strong southwest winds typical of the winter/early spring months, there continues to be a heightened risk of flooding from lake surges and wave uprush, and wave-driven erosion along the shoreline.

Community flood coordinators and the public are advised to monitor weather conditions, particularly strong southwest winds. People are urged to use caution or stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline during times of strong wave action and elevated water levels.

LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will update this message as necessary.

This Flood Outlook is in effect until further notice.

Contact LPRCA at 519-842-4242 should further information be required.