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Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook – Lake Erie

October 8, 2019

LPRCA adjusts Lake Erie Flood Watch to a Flood Outlook

Long Point Region Conservation Authority (LPRCA) is issuing a Flood Outlook for all areas along the Lake Erie shoreline to bring attention to Lake Erie’s high static water levels and the possibility of flooding during the fall and winter months.

The National Hydrological Services Great Lakes Water Levels Information Memorandum from October 3, 2019 reports that:

Lake Erie’s September monthly mean water levels were 69 cm above average, a new record high for the month.
Lake Erie fell 12 cm last month, more than its average September decline of 9 cm.
At the beginning of October, Lake Erie’s level was 69 cm above average, 20 cm higher than last year and 7 cm below the record high beginning-of-October level set in 1986.

In the Long Point Region watershed, Lake Erie’s current static water level (calm) is 174.78 m. While water supplies in the Great Lakes were higher than average over the last three months, they were lower than levels measured in the previous three-month period. Assuming average water supply conditions, Lake Erie’s water level is expected to continue dropping in October.

With above-average water levels and the possibility of strong southwest winds typical of the fall and winter months, there is an increased risk of both wave-driven erosion along the shoreline and flooding from lake surges and wave uprush.

Community flood coordinators and the public are advised to monitor weather conditions, especially strong Southwest winds. People are urged to use caution and stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline during times of strong wave action and elevated water levels.

LPRCA staff will continue to monitor Lake Erie conditions and will provide updates as necessary.

This Flood Outlook is in effect until Further Notice.

Contact Matt Churly at 519-842-4242 ext. 226 for more information.