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Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook – Lake Erie

May 9, 2019

The Long Point Region Conservation Authority is updating the Flood Outlook for all areas of the Lake Erie shoreline within its jurisdiction. This updated message is intended to raise attention to the current and forecast high static water levels of Lake Erie. The potential for storm surge events continues to be increased as a result of the higher lake levels.

The National Hydrological Services Great Lakes Water Levels Information Memorandum (May 1st, 2019) reports that:

  • Water supplies to the Great Lakes were well above average in April as a result of heavy rain, mild temperatures and snowmelt.
  • During the month of April, Lake Erie was 60 cm above average and the 6th highest April mean level on record, and the highest since 1998.
  • At the beginning of May, Lake Erie’s monthly water level was 3 cm above the record-high set in May 1985.
  • Lake Erie could exceed monthly average levels this summer and early fall set in 1986.

As a result of the high lake levels, there continues to be an increased risk for flooding and erosion along the Lake Erie shoreline. The greatest risk for flooding and erosion in the Long Point Region in particular is from storms with sustained south-westerly and westerly wind storms. The risk for flood events along the shoreline is expected to remain high into summer.

Community flood coordinators and the public are advised to monitor weather conditions and the increase in potential for flooding and erosion along the shoreline into 2019. People are urged to use caution or stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline during times of strong wave action and elevated water levels.

Long Point Region Conservation Authority staff will continue to monitor conditions and will update this flood message as necessary.

Contact Ben Hodi, Water Resources Analyst at 519-842-4242 ext. 264 should further information be required.